Portfolio optimization under Expected Shortfall: contour maps of estimation error

The contour maps of the error of historical and parametric estimates of the global minimum risk for large random portfolios optimized under the Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measure are constructed. Similar maps for the VaR of the ES-optimized portfolio are also presented, along with results for the distribution of portfolio weights over the random samples and for the out-of-sample and in-sample estimates for ES. The contour maps allow one to quantitatively determine the sample size (the length of the time series) required by the optimization for a given number of different assets in the portfolio, at a given confidence level and a given level of relative estimation error. The necessary sample sizes invariably turn out to be unrealistically large for any reasonable choice of the number of assets and the confidence level. These results are obtained via analytical calculations based on methods borrowed from the statistical physics of random systems, supported by numerical simulations

Optimal growth trajectories with finite carrying capacity

We consider the problem of finding optimal strategies that maximize the average growth rate of multiplicative stochastic processes. For a geometric Brownian motion, the problem is solved through the so-called Kelly criterion, according to which the optimal growth rate is achieved by investing a constant given fraction of resources at any step of the dynamics. We generalize these finding to the case of dynamical equations with finite carrying capacity, which can find applications in biology, mathematical ecology, and finance. We formulate the problem in terms of a stochastic process with multiplicative noise and a nonlinear drift term that is determined by the specific functional form of carrying capacity. We solve the stochastic equation for two classes of carrying capacity functions (power laws and logarithmic), and in both cases we compute the optimal trajectories of the control parameter. We further test the validity of our analytical results using numerical simulations

Scalability and egalitarianism in peer-to-peer networks

Many information-technology innovations are driven, in their early stages, by an egalitarian ethos that empowers individuals through dis-intermediation. Bitcoin and peer to peer financial systems were inspired by these egalitarian ambitions. However, in bitcoin we have recently witnessed a strong centralization around a few large mining pools, which puts control of most of the system in the hands of a few. In this chapter we investigate the physical limits of distributed consensus mechanisms over networks, and discuss whether there are scalability and efficiency reasons that incentivize centralization. We compute the time to reach majority consensus in a variety of settings, comparing egalitarian networks with centralized networks, and quantifying the effect of network topology on the propagation of information

"Spectrally gapped" random walks on networks: a Mean First Passage Time formula

We derive an approximate but explicit formula for the Mean First Passage Time of a random walker between a source and a target node of a directed and weighted network. The formula does not require any matrix inversion, and it takes as only input the transition probabilities into the target node. It is derived from the calculation of the average resolvent of a deformed ensemble of random sub-stochastic matrices H = ⟨ H ⟩ + δ H, with ⟨ H ⟩ rank- 1 and non-negative. The accuracy of the formula depends on the spectral gap of the reduced transition matrix, and it is tested numerically on several instances of (weighted) networks away from the high sparsity regime, with an excellent agreement

Network models of financial systemic risk: A review

The global financial system can be represented as a large complex network in which banks, hedge funds and other financial institutions are interconnected to each other through visible and invisible financial linkages. Recently, a lot of attention has been paid to the understanding of the mechanisms that can lead to a breakdown of this network. This can happen when the existing financial links turn from being a means of risk diversification to channels for the propagation of risk across financial institutions. In this review article, we summarize recent developments in the modeling of financial systemic risk. We focus in particular on network approaches, such as models of default cascades due to bilateral exposures or to overlapping portfolios, and we also report on recent findings on the empirical structure of interbank networks. The current review provides a landscape of the newly arising interdisciplinary field lying at the intersection of several disciplines, such as network science, physics, engineering, economics, and ecology

Quantification of systemic risk from overlapping portfolios in the financial system

Financial markets create endogenous systemic risk, the risk that a substantial fraction of the system ceases to function and collapses. Systemic risk can propagate through different mechanisms and channels of contagion. One important form of financial contagion arises from indirect interconnections between financial institutions mediated by financial markets. This indirect interconnection occurs when financial institutions invest in common assets and is referred to as overlapping portfolios. In this work we quantify systemic risk from indirect interconnections between financial institutions. Complete information of security holdings of major Mexican financial intermediaries and the ability to uniquely identify securities in their portfolios, allows us to represent the Mexican financial system as a bipartite network of securities and financial institutions. This makes it possible to quantify systemic risk arising from overlapping portfolios. We show that focusing only on direct interbank exposures underestimates total systemic risk levels by up to 50% under the assumptions of the model. By representing the financial system as a multi-layer network of direct interbank exposures (default contagion) and indirect external exposures (overlapping portfolios) we estimate the mutual influence of different channels of contagion. The method presented here is the first quantification of systemic risk on national scales that includes overlapping portfolio

Liquidity risk and instabilities in portfolio optimization

We show that including a term which accounts for finite liquidity in portfolio optimization naturally mitigates the instabilities that arise in the estimation of coherent risk measures on finite samples. This is because taking into account the impact of trading in the market is mathematically equivalent to introducing a regularization on the risk measure. We show here that the impact function determines which regularizer is to be used. We also show that any regularizer based on the norm ℓpℓp with p>1p>1 makes the sensitivity of coherent risk measures to estimation error disappear, while regularizers with p<1p<1 do not. The ℓ1ℓ1 norm represents a border case: its “soft” implementation does not remove the instability, but rather shifts its locus, whereas its “hard” implementation (including hard limits or a ban on short selling) eliminates it. We demonstrate these effects on the important special case of expected shortfall (ES) which has recently become the global regulatory market risk measure

Early coauthorship with top scientists predicts success in academic careers

We examined the long-term impact of coauthorship with established, highly-cited scientists on the careers of junior researchers in four scientific disciplines. Here, using matched pair analysis, we find that junior researchers who coauthor work with top scientists enjoy a persistent competitive advantage throughout the rest of their careers, compared to peers with similar early career profiles but without top coauthors. Such early coauthorship predicts a higher probability of repeatedly coauthoring work with top-cited scientists, and, ultimately, a higher probability of becoming one. Junior researchers affiliated with less prestigious institutions show the most benefits from coauthorship with a top scientist. As a consequence, we argue that such institutions may hold vast amounts of untapped potential, which may be realised by improving access to top scientists

Pathways towards instability in financial networks

Following the financial crisis of 2007-2008, a deep analogy between the origins of instability in financial systems and complex ecosystems has been pointed out: in both cases, topological features of network structures influence how easily distress can spread within the system. However, in financial network models, the details of how financial institutions interact typically play a decisive role, and a general understanding of precisely how network topology creates instability remains lacking. Here we show how processes that are widely believed to stabilize the financial system, that is, market integration and diversification, can actually drive it towards instability, as they contribute to create cyclical structures which tend to amplify financial distress, thereby undermining systemic stability and making large crises more likely. This result holds irrespective of the details of how institutions interact, showing that policy-relevant analysis of the factors affecting financial stability can be carried out while abstracting away from such details

DebtRank: A microscopic foundation for shock propagation

The DebtRank algorithm has been increasingly investigated as a method to estimate the impact of shocks in financial networks, as it overcomes the limitations of the traditional default-cascade approaches. Here we formulate a dynamical "microscopic" theory of instability for financial networks by iterating balance sheet identities of individual banks and by assuming a simple rule for the transfer of shocks from borrowers to lenders. By doing so, we generalise the DebtRank formulation, both providing an interpretation of the effective dynamics in terms of basic accounting principles and preventing the underestimation of losses on certain network topologies. Depending on the structure of the interbank leverage matrix the dynamics is either stable, in which case the asymptotic state can be computed analytically, or unstable, meaning that at least one bank will default. We apply this framework to a dataset of the top listed European banks in the period 2008-2013. We find that network effects can generate an amplification of exogenous shocks of a factor ranging between three (in normal periods) and six (during the crisis) when we stress the system with a 0.5% shock on external (i.e. non-interbank) assets for all banks